Where is the market boundary? — “Review and Prospect of Sino-US High-speed Railway Development”

On June 14, 2019, the USJ seminar was successfully held. The event adopted online and offline methods, and relevant parties from all parties in the Bay Area attended the event. Mr. Michael Lee has worked in China for 12 years and worked in the United States for nearly 20 years. He served as the head of the railway business of GE, Siemens and Thales. Mr. Lee shared the history of Sino-US high-speed rail industry technology development, China-US high-speed rail Industry history, China’s high-speed rail technology policy, the relationship between industrial organization and market law, the improvement of governance mechanisms, and the future development of high-speed rail, such as the history, strategy, technology policy and impact on the global market.

The history of US-Sino Rail:
The world’s largest railway mileage – the United States
The world’s largest high-speed rail mileage country – China
High-speed rail, as the name suggests, is the high-speed railway, which is a relative concept. The average rail speed does not exceed 160 km/h (100 mph) per hour. High-speed rails typically travel at 250 km/h (150 mph). The speed of the high-speed rail is 1.5 times that of the ordinary iron. As of January 2019, the US Railroad was 156,000 miles (about 250,000 kilometers), of which 457 miles (about 730 kilometers) were high-speed rail. The total length of China’s railways is 87,000 miles (about 140,000 kilometers), of which 20,000 miles (32,000 kilometers) are high-speed rail.
The total length of the US railway is twice that of China, and the total length of China’s high-speed railway is 40 times that of the United States.
The gap in government administrative power is the epitome of high-speed rail contrast between China and the United States
The world’s first high-speed rail was the Japanese Shinkansen, which was built in 1964. It was 125 miles per hour and is now 200 miles. The second is the French TVG high-speed rail, built in 1981, at a speed of 175 miles per hour, now 200 miles. The third place was the German ICE, which was built in 1991 and was 175 miles per hour and now 200 miles. The American high-speed rail was built by ACELA in 2000. It was 150 miles per hour and is still 150 miles. The China High Speed Rail CRH was built in 2008, at a speed of 188 miles per hour and now 220 miles.
The starting point for the development of high-speed rail between China and the United States is different. The scale and speed of development are very different. What is the reason for this? Government administrative power. This has created huge gaps in funding, policies, and technical resources.
China’s high-speed rail technology path: import, absorption, innovation
In 2008, the Olympic Games was held in Beijing. This sporting event became the “trigger” of China’s high-speed rail. From “independent research and development” to “integrated”, it introduced “(international cooperation), digested and absorbed, and carried out technological innovation. At the same time, “dilute” international brands and strengthen “China’s own brands” have formed a huge market effect.
Advanced investment in China’s high-speed rail construction: debt development, relying on the spillover effect of high-speed rail to make up for investment spending
China’s high-speed rail debt is 800 billion US dollars (about 5 trillion yuan), and China’s high-speed rail itself cannot support its operating income. What should we do? Only relying on the administrative system with Chinese characteristics depends on the spillover effect of high-speed rail.
The Future Development of Sino-US High Speed Rail: Controversy and Crisis
The development of high-speed rail in the United States is still “arguing” in the future. This is determined by the US system, and it is constantly debated and inefficient. The future development of China’s high-speed rail is facing “sustainable operations.” Only the overall healthy development of the Chinese economy can help China’s high-speed rail to overcome the “debt crisis.”
The future development of Sino-US high-speed rail: global supply chain
The future development of Sino-US high-speed rail is inseparable from global technology, talent, capital, and global supply chain. No country or any enterprise can independently build a high-speed rail production R&D system.